U.S. Residential Heating System Market - Industry Outlook & Forecast 2023-2028

INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

The U.S. residential heating system market size was valued at USD 10.8 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 13.97 billion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 4.39%. The residential heating market is undergoing tremendous modifications due to the increasing integration of the internet of things (IoT) technology with heating products, making them innovative and accessible. The emphasis on connecting several sensors within building ecosystems, including heating pumps, and geothermal heating systems, has grown for achieving energy efficiency. Alternatively, the increasing raw material price, supply chain disruption, and oil prices surge due to the Russian-Ukraine conflict expect the end-user to shift toward an energy-efficient heating system in the U.S. residential heating system market.

The U.S. residential heating system market shipments are expected to reach 11,903.69 thousand units by 2028. Owing to the weather conditions and widely varying climatic scenarios in the US, the market for heating is significant. Residential customers choose various heating scenarios when considering both main and secondary heating equipment and fuels. The growth in heating equipment installation in residential buildings across the country is expected to drive the industry during the forecast period. Of which, residential consumption of heat pumps holds a major share in the sales volume of heating equipment, owing to the rapidly increasing construction of dwelling units.

Heating systems are a high priority for buildings to ensure thermal comfort. The following are the major requirement involved in heating systems:

• Heating systems generally cost over 15% of the overall building equipment cost.
• Apart from the capital cost, heating systems contribute to the high operational cost. Hence it is prudent to choose energy-efficient products.
• While floor and space requirements are significant, choosing the right heating equipment is crucial.

MARKET TRENDS & DRIVERS

Emergence Of Smart Heating Systems with IoT Technology
Many organization officials expect smart heating systems to take the most significant edge out of their electricity expenses. Smart IoT heating options provide a method to optimize energy consumption without any interruption in consumer service. IoT has the advantage of impacting heating systems through its smart technologies, which allow manufacturers to increase productivity and optimize assets. Innovations in heating technology are currently in the growing stage. IoT in heating comes under the parallels of infrastructure IoT and consumer, which helps for greater flexibility and smart controls for consumers. Hence, modern technology expects to propel the demand for smart heating systems in the U.S. residential heating system market during the forecast period.

Rising Demand for Geothermal Heating Systems
Geothermal heating systems that tap into the consistency of ground temperatures six feet below the surface are an extension of a domestic unearthing trend occurring across the United States. The energy-intensive heating industry is undergoing a transition as the supply of fossil fuels depletes rapidly. These traditional energy sources are increasingly falling out of favor due to climate change, pollution, energy security reasons, and high costs. Heating accounts for a lot of electricity consumption. The geothermal heating system offers economical water heating facilities. Usually, energy costs for heating water are high. The high water heating cost can be decreased by up to 65 % with geothermal heat pump systems. Therefore, the demand for geothermal heating systems is expected to grow in the U.S. residential heating system market in the upcoming years.

SEGMENTATION INSIGHTS

INSIGHTS BY EQUIPMENT TYPE
The heat pump equipment market in the U.S. was valued at USD 4.87 billion in 2022. Heating pumps have been one of the most critical heating systems. They are mainly used in cold regions as their primary function is heating. However, heat pumps are also used for cooling by reversing the direction of heat flow. The demand for heat pumps mostly ensues from efficiency since their output is four times the amount of energy they consume. Heat pumps are a steady revenue generator for the industry and have witnessed high growth and constant innovation.

INSIGHTS BY APPLICATION TYPE
The single-family housing segment was valued at USD 7.92 billion in 2022. The single-family houses enjoy a larger industry share. Furthermore, the operational energy cost is higher for single-family houses than for multi-family houses. Various heating systems for single-family houses can be classified based on different parameters, such as heat-carrying medium, energy sources, and the heat-transmitting process. Over the past two-three years, disposable incomes and savings of consumers have increased, driving improvements in residential projects, particularly in the Midwest. The increasing number of skyscrapers and high-story residential construction projects in rapidly growing states like Florida, California, and New York also boosted industry growth.

INSIGHTS BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL
The offline distribution channel dominated the U.S. residential heating system market, accounting for a revenue share of 62.42%, and is expected to witness an incremental growth of USD 1.76 billion during the forecast period. Factors such as the broader reach in areas that lack better connectivity and high consumer trust associated with personally experiencing the quality of products are driving the growth of this segment.

Although the online channel holds a relatively lower U.S. residential heating system market share, it is expected to grow at a higher CAGR of 5.11% (by value) during the forecast period. The proliferation of e-commerce and raising awareness of the benefits of online purchases, such as heavy discounts, occasional offers, and rising demand for convenience, is driving the growth of the online segment.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

In 2022, the Southern region accounted for a revenue share of 34.27% and was the leader in the U.S. residential heating system market. The high share is attributed to the concentration of a large population base compared to other regions in the country. The presence of many household units across the region leads to high demand for space heating technology from the residential sector, thereby supporting market growth.

The residential heating system market in the western U.S. was valued at USD 2.8 billion in 2022. The western region of the U.S. includes major states such as Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Nevada, California, Alaska, and Hawaii. Moreover, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, from Q2–Q3 2021, Colorado and Utah witnessed the highest increase in personal income of around 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, in the western region. Hence, such income growth is expected to shift consumer interest from conventional to space heating technology, thereby boosting the demand for heat pumps and boilers in the U.S. residential heating system market during the forecast period.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Many large and small players characterize the U.S. residential heating market. Systemair, Johnson Controls, Zehnder, Ostberg, and Aldes are some of the key players in the US residential heating system industry. Other players operating in the industry include L.G., Panasonic, Carrier, Regal, and others. The prominent vendors focus on developing advanced heating systems and investing in R&D initiatives to enlarge their product line and gain a competitive advantage in the U.S. residential heating system market.

Moreover, the short time-to-market and little acceptance of new technologies add to market challenges for market vendors. R&D investments are more focused on cost reduction of the production process and improvement of the existing product technology for value addition than developing new products. As a result, a lot of mergers & acquisitions are taking place to develop and enhance the offerings and attributes to survive in the U.S. residential heating system market.